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Impacts of different climate stabilisation scenarios on plant species in Europe

TitleImpacts of different climate stabilisation scenarios on plant species in Europe
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2006
AuthorsBakkenes, Eickhout, Alkemade
JournalGlobal Environmental Change
Keywordsanalyse de scénario, biodiversité, biodiversity, biological diversity, changement climatique, climate, climate change, climate model, conservation, convention, diversity, ecosystem, Europe, impact, modèle climatique, modélisation, modelling, profil de stabilisation, scenario analysis, stabilisation profiles, temperature

With the use of goals from the Convention on Biological Diversity we evaluated two climate stabilisation profiles on their merits for conservation of biodiversity, comparing them with a baseline profile. Focusing on plant ecosystems at the pan-European level, we concluded that although a maximum global-mean temperature increase of 2 1C is likely to be met in a 550 ppmv CO2-equivalent stabilisation profile, large areas of ecosystems in Europe will be affected. Most of the impacts manifest themselves in northern countries, with a high net increase of plant species, and in Mediterranean countries, with a decrease in the number of plant species and stable area. Other impacts are less robust, given the regional variation in climate results for different climate models.

Michel.Bakkenes@mnp.nl Bas.Eickhout@mnp.nl
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