%0 Journal Article %J Nature %D 2004 %T Extinction risk from climate change %A C.D. Thomas %A A. Cameron %A R.E. Green %A M. Bakkenes %A L.J. Beaumont %A Y.C. Collingham %A B.F.N. Erasmus %A M. Ferreira di Sequeira %A A. Grainger %A L. Hannah %A L. Hughes %A B. Huntley %A A.S. van Jaarsveld %A G.F. Midgley %A L. Miles %A M.A. Ortega-Huerta %A A.T. Peterson %A O.L. Phillips %A S.E. Williams %K abundance %K bird %K butterfly %K carbon sequestration %K climate %K climate change %K distribution %K extinction risk %K frog %K mammal %K plant %K reptile %K risk %K terrestrial fauna %K terrestrial vegetation %V 427 %X

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'.When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.