@article {426,
	title = {National and European perspectives on climate change sensitivity of the habitats directive characteristic plant species},
	journal = { Journal for Nature Conservation},
	volume = {15},
	year = {2007},
	abstract = {<p>The main goal of the Habitats Directive, a key document for European  conservation, is to maintain a {\textquoteright}favourable{\textquoteright} conservation status of  selected species and habitats. In the face of near-future climatic  change this goal may become difficult to achieve. Here, we evaluate the  sensitivity to climate change of 84 plant species that characterise the  Danish habitat types included in the Habitats Directive. A fuzzy  bioclimatic envelope model, linking European and Northwest African  species{\textquoteright} distribution data with climate, was used to predict  climatically suitable areas forthese species in year 2100 under  two-climate change scenarios. Climate sensitivity was evaluated at both  Danish and European scales to provide an explicit European perspective  on the impacts predicted for Denmark. In all 69-99\% of the species were  predicted to become negatively affected by climate change at either  scale. Application of international Red List criteria showed that 43-55\%  and 17-69\% would become vulnerable in Denmark and Europe, respectively.  Northwest African atlas data were used to improve the ecological  accuracy of the future predictions. For comparison, using only European  data added 0-7\% to these numbers. No species were predicted to become  extinct in Europe, but 4-7\% could be lost from Denmark. Some species  were predicted to become positively affected in Denmark, but negatively  affected in Europe. In addition to nationally endangered species, this  group would be an important focus for a Danish conservation strategy. A  geographically differentiated Danish conservation strategy is suggested  as the eastern part of Denmark was predicted to be more negatively  affected than the western part. No differences in the sensitivity of the  Habitats Directive habitats were found. We conclude that the  conservation strategy of the Habitats Directive needs to integrate the  expected shifts in species{\textquoteright} distributions due to climate change.</p>},
	keywords = {approche g{\'e}n{\'e}rale, changement climatique, climate, climate change, conservation, directive, Directive Habitats, distribution, Europe, habitat, Habitats Directive, impact, modelling, perspective, plant, status, vegetation},
	author = {S. Normand and F. Skov and J.C. Svenning}
}
